Aviation

Weather Forecast

TAF | Aerodrome Forecast

The aerodrome forecast (TAF) is the forecaster’s best judgment of the most probable weather
conditions expected to occur at an aerodrome together with their most probable time of
occurrence. It is designed to meet the preflight and in-flight requirements of flight operations.
Aerodrome forecasts are intended to relate to weather conditions for flight operations within
six statute miles (roughly five nautical miles) of the centre of the runway complex depending
on local terrain
. Certain specified weather phenomena, when expected within the vicinity of
the aerodrome, are also included in a TAF.


The issue time of an aerodrome forecast is the time that it is released to the
telecommunication system. To facilitate flight planning, aerodrome forecasts shall be
transmitted on the telecommunication system as close as possible to, but not later than 20
minutes prior to the beginning of their period of validity.

For those aerodromes which do not have a 24-hour observing program, two consecutive
hourly observations immediately prior to the issue time of the forecast are required before
issuing a forecast. Depending on the valid period of the forecast, the above situation can be
accomplished in one of two ways:


1) After receiving the second hourly observation, the TAF is issued as soon as possible, for
example, 15 minutes after the second observation is received. The period of validity of
such a TAF is backdated to begin on the whole hour prior to the issue time of the
forecast. The forecast, however, is valid from the time that it is received. For example,
after receiving the 13Z and 14Z observations for Fort Good Hope, the TAF is issued as:
TAF CYGH 201410Z 2014/2101
2) After receiving the second hourly observation, the TAF is issued approximately 40
minutes after the hour of the observation. In this case, the period of validity of such a
TAF is postdated to begin on the whole hour following the issue time of the forecast. For
example, after receiving the 10Z and 11Z observation for Muskoka, a TAF is issued as:
TAF CYQA 201140Z 2012/2100
If two consecutive hourly observations are not available immediately prior to the issue time of
a TAF, a nil TAF shall be issued, e.g. TAF CYTS 051640Z NIL followed by NO OBS
included in the remarks section. Alternatively, if only one observation is available, the nil
TAF would read TAF CYTS 051640Z NIL followed by INSUFFICIENT OBS included in
the remarks section.

In exceptional circumstances (e.g. where there is a nearby weather station providing routine
hourly and special weather reports) forecasts may be issued after receipt of the first hourly
report.
TAFs are normally scheduled to be updated six hours after the previous issue time. Under no
circumstance shall a TAF be scheduled more than seven hours after the previous issue time.

An aerodrome forecast shall be valid from the moment it is issued (e.g. a TAF with an
indicated period of validity from 11Z to 23Z issued at 1040Z is considered to be valid from
1040Z) until it is amended, or until the next scheduled TAF for the same aerodrome is issued,
or until the valid period is ended with no new TAFs issued, whichever comes first.

FD | Wind and Temperature Aloft

The symbolic form of the forecast is “ddfftt”, where dd is the wind direction in tens of degrees
with respect to true north, ff is the wind speed in knots, and tt is the temperature in degrees
Celsius.
Wind speeds from 100 KT to199 KT are indicated by subtracting 100 from the speed and
adding 50 to the direction
(e.g. 240 degrees at 130 KT is coded 7430). Speeds in excess of
199 KT are coded as if they were 199 KT (e.g. winds from 90 degrees at 210 KT are coded
5999, as would winds of 199 KT). Finally, wind speeds less than five knots are indicated by
9900.

The sign of the temperature is indicated as plus “+” or minus “-”, for levels below 24,000 feet.
Above 24,000 feet, the sign of the temperature is not indicated.

GFA | Graphic Area Forecast

A graphic area forecast (GFA) consists of six charts:
 two valid at T+0 hr (the beginning of the forecast period);
 two valid at T+6 hr (six hours into the forecast period); and
 two valid at T+12 hr (the end of the forecast period).

Ascent and descent planning information for higher-performance aircraft is an important but
secondary function of the GFA. The GFA is designed primarily to meet general aviation and
regional air carrier requirements for pre-flight route planning in Canada. Each panel
graphically describes the most probable meteorological conditions expected to occur between
the surface and 24,000 feet over a given area at a specified time.

he forecast period).
Of the two charts valid at each time, one shows the clouds and weather portion; the other
shows the icing, turbulence and freezing levels for the same time and area.
In addition, the clouds and weather chart of the last set also contain a worded instrument
flight rules (IFR) outlook extending over the subsequent 12-hour period.

A GFA is issued to reach users approximately half an hour before the beginning of the
forecast period (that is, half an hour before T0).
A GFA is issued at 2330, 0530, 1130 and 1730 UTC, and issues are valid at 0000, 0600,
1200 and 1800 UTC respectively. Each GFA issue includes a 0, 6 and 12 hour forecast as
well as an IFR outlook for the subsequent 12 hours.

The units to be used in the GFA are the conventional ones used in North America as listed:
 horizontal distance: measured in nautical miles (NM)
 speed: measured in knots (KT)
 atmospheric pressure: measured in hectopascals (hPa)
 wind direction: measured in degrees true
 horizontal visibility: measured in statute miles and fractions of statute miles (SM)
 cloud height: measured in hundreds of feet above sea level (ASL), with the exception
of ceilings which are above ground level (AGL)
 base and top of areas of icing and turbulence: measured in hundreds of feet ASL
 freezing level: measured in hundreds of feet ASL
 time: measured in UTC (Z) with midnight indicated by the numerals zero and zero “00”

Surface Wind

The direction and speed of strong surface winds are indicated by using wind barbs for wind
speed and direction for all areas where winds are expected to have a mean sustained speed
of at least 20 KT. Wind gusts are indicated when speeds of at least 10 KT greater than the
mean sustained winds are forecast. The gusts are indicated by the letter “G”, followed by the
gust speed in knots, enclosed in a box, as indicated by the following symbol.

IFR Outlook

The outlook is included in the comments box as part of the T0+12 hr clouds and weather
chart. It should be fairly general and indicate the areas where organized IFR weather is
expected within the subsequent 12 hours. In addition, it should state the cause of the IFR
weather, along with weather hazards, if any. For example, if IFR ceilings were expected over
eastern New Brunswick, the IFR outlook would say CIGS/VIS RA/SN/BLSN/BR ERN NB.

Turbulence (TURB)

A low-level jet (L LVL JET), when reaching 50 KT or more is included in the GFA. It may be
included at speeds between 35 KT and 45 KT when, upon the forecaster’s judgment,
significant turbulence or shear is expected. L LVL JET is rounded to the nearest 5 KT

Freezing level (FZLVL)

Freezing level contours are indicated on a GFA by dashed lines. The height of the freezing
level is indicated using the standard heights in hundreds of feet above sea level (e.g. SFC,
25, 50, 75, 100, etc., meaning, surface, 2,500 feet, 5,000 feet, 7,500 feet, 10,000 feet, etc.).
When more than one freezing level is forecast in the vertical, only the lowest level needs to be
indicated, unless meteorological conditions are expected to be relevant to aviation safety (for
example: freezing precipitation aloft). An above freezing layer (AFL) is depicted in a defined
area.

Amended GFA

Once issued, a SIGMET or AIRMET message automatically amends the current and relevant
GFA. The remark (RMK) found in the National version of those messages indicates the GFA
region(s) the SIGMET or AIRMET applies to

Corrected GFA

A correction to a GFA is issued for the following events:
1) Any unforecast weather phenomena not requiring an AIRMET (i.e. below AIRMET
criteria threshold) or any other unforecast weather phenomena that, according to the
forecaster, should be depicted in the GFA.
2) Forecast weather phenomena (in the GFA) that fails to occur:
 removal of forecast weather phenomena in the GFA chart that are no longer
occurring or no longer expected to occur.
3) A significant error made in a GFA chart:
 a significant error is one which, if uncorrected, would result in an erroneous
interpretation of the GFA and create a potential hazard to aviation.

Significant weather prognostic charts

Forecasts in chart or pictorial form depict, with greater clarity than verbal, the most probable
forecast conditions over large areas. Forecasts of significant enroute weather phenomena
prepared as SIG WX charts are primarily designed to meet requirements for preflight
planning.

The chart is a depiction of forecast significant weather at mid-levels (700 hPa to 400 hPa or
FL100 to FL240).

The charts are issued four times a day at approximately 0210, 0815, 1425 and 1940 UTC,
and are valid at 12, 18, 00 and 06 UTC respectively. In other words, a chart is issued roughly
10 hours before its valid time.

Standard
Aviation

DECODING GFA

Graphic area forecast (GFA) charts are issued four times daily, approximately 30 min before the beginning of the forecast period. The GFA is issued at approximately 2330, 0530, 1130 and 1730 UTC and is valid at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC respectively. Each issue of the GFA consists of six charts: two charts valid at the beginning of the forecast period; two charts valid six hours into the forecast period; and the final two charts valid twelve hours into the forecast period. 

Speeds in the graphic area forecast (GFA) are expressed in knots and heights in hundreds of feet. Horizontal visibility is measured in statute miles and all times are stated in Coordinated Universal Time. 

The legend box includes weather symbols that may be used in the weather information part of the graphic area forecast (GFA) chart. It also includes a nautical mile scale bar to facilitate the determination of distances. Symbols used in the GFA are consistent with those used in a significant weather prognostic chart. In the following example, symbols for thunderstorm (TS), ice pellets (PL), freezing rain (FZRA) and freezing drizzle (FZDZ) are indicated in the legend box. These symbols are depicted in red when shown in colour. 

The comments box provides information that the weather forecaster considers important (e.g. formation or dissipation of fog, increasing or decreasing visibility). It is also used to describe elements that are difficult to render pictorially or, if added to the depiction, would cause the chart to become cluttered (e.g. light icing). The standard phrases “HGTS ASL UNLESS NOTED” and “CB TCU AND ACC IMPLY SIG TURBC AND ICG. CB IMPLIES LLWS” are also included in the comments box. 

The IFR outlook is always general in nature, indicating the main areas where IFR weather is expected, the cause for the IFR weather and any associated weather hazards. In the example given, IFR conditions caused by low ceilings (CIG), rain (RA) and mist (BR) south of the St. Lawrence Valley are forecast. Also, local IFR conditions are forecast because of an onshore (ONSHR) and upslope (UPSLP) northwesterly flow of air from James Bay (JAMSBA) and Hudson’s Bay (HSNBA). 

The graphic area forecast (GFA) clouds and weather chart provides a forecast of cloud layers and/or surface-based phenomena, visibility, weather and obstructions to vision at the valid time indicated. Lines joining points of equal surface pressure (isobars) are depicted at 4-hPa intervals. In addition, relevant synoptic features that are responsible for the portrayed weather are also depicted, with an indication of their speed and direction of movement at the valid time. 

Synoptic features—The motion of synoptic features when the speed of movement is forecast to be 5 kt or more will be indicated by an arrow and a speed value. For speeds less than 5 kt, the letters QS (quasi-stationary) are used. A low-pressure centre moving eastward at 15 kt with an associated cold front moving southeast at 10 kt would be indicated as follows: 

Clouds—The bases and tops of forecast clouds between the surface and 24 000 ft ASL will be indicated on the GFA clouds and weather chart. The tops of convective clouds (i.e. TCU, ACC, CB) are indicated, even if they extend above 24 000 ft ASL. Cirrus clouds are not depicted on the chart. The cloud type will be indicated if considered significant; however, convective clouds, such as CU, TCU, ACC and CB, will always be stated if forecast to be present. A scalloped border, depicted in brown when shown in colour, encloses organized areas of clouds where the sky condition is either broken (BKN) or overcast (OVC). An organized area of broken cumulus clouds based at 2 000 ft ASL with tops at 8 000 ft ASL would be indicated as follows: 

Where organized areas of clouds are not forecast and visibility is expected to be greater than 6 SM, a scalloped border is not used. In these areas, the sky condition is stated using the terms SKC, FEW or SCT. In the following example, unorganized scattered clouds are forecast based at 3 000 ft ASL with tops at 5 000 ft ASL: 

When a forecasted cloud deck contains more than one significant cloud layer, the cloud amount description depends on the space between the layers. When the separation is less than 2 000 ft, the descriptor represents the summation amount across all the layers, and the term LYRS is included immediately after it. When the separation is 2 000 ft or greater, each layer is stated, with its own descriptor that applies only to that layer. The bases and tops of each layer are indicated. For instance, a scattered layer of cumulus cloud based at 3 000 ft ASL with tops at 5 000 ft ASL and a higher overcast layer of cloud based at 10 000 ft ASL with tops at 13 000 ft ASL would be indicated as follows: 

All heights are indicated in hundreds of feet above sea level (2 means 200 ft, 45 means 4 500 ft, etc.) unless otherwise specified. Above ground level heights are indicated by the abbreviations CIG and AGL (e.g. CIGS 5–10 AGL). A note to this effect is included in the comments box in the lower right hand corner of the chart. 

The vertical visibility into surface-based layers is measured in hundreds of feet AGL. Local obscured ceilings with a vertical visibility of between 300 and 500 ft AGL would be indicated as follows: 

The forecast visibility is measured in statute miles. When the visibility is expected to be greater than 6 SM, it is indicated as P6SM. A forecast visibility that is expected to vary between 2 and 4 SM with light rain showers would be indicated as: 

Weather and obstructions to vision—Forecast weather is always included immediately after visibility. Obstructions to vision are only mentioned when visibility is forecast to be 6 SM or less (e.g. 2–4SM –RA BR). Only standard abbreviations are used to describe weather and obstructions to vision. Areas of showery or intermittent precipitation are shown as hatched areas enclosed by a dashed green line when colour is used. Areas of continuous precipitation are shown as stippled areas enclosed by a solid green line when colour is used. Areas of obstruction to vision not associated with precipitation, where visibility is 6 SM or less, are enclosed by a dashed orange line when colour is used. Areas of freezing precipitation are depicted in red and enclosed by a solid red line when colour is used. 

Weather and obstructions to vision in the GFA may include spatial qualifiers, which describe the coverage of the depicted meteorological phenomena. 

These lines joining points of equal mean sea level pressure are depicted on the GFA clouds and weather chart. Isobars are drawn at 4-hPa intervals from a reference value of 1 000 hPa. 

The speed and direction of forecast surface winds with a sustained speed of at least 20 kt are indicated by wind barbs and an associated wind-speed value. When accompanied by strong gusts, mean sustained winds of less than 20 kt may also be included, at the forecaster’s discretion, if moderate mechanical turbulence is expected to occur as a result of the wind gusts. Wind gusts are indicated by the letter “G,” followed by the peak gust speed in knots. In the following example, the surface wind is forecast to be from the west (270˚ true) with a speed of 25 kt and a peak gust speed of 35 kt. 

Depicted in blue when shown in colour and indicated whenever moderate or severe icing is forecast for the coverage area. The bases and tops of each icing layer, measured in hundreds of feet above mean sea level, as well as the type of icing (e.g. “RIME”, “MXD” [mixed], “CLR” [clear]) will be indicated. Areas of light icing are described in the comments box.

An area of moderate mixed icing based at 2 000 ft ASL with a top of 13 000 ft ASL would be indicated as follows: 

If icing is expected to be present during only part of the forecast period covered by the chart, the time of occurrence of the icing is indicated in the comments box.

Areas of severe icing are indicated with a denser stippling. The following is an example of an area of severe icing contained within an area of moderate icing: 

Depicted in red when shown in colour and indicated whenever moderate or severe turbulence is forecast for the coverage area. The base and top of each turbulence layer is measured in hundreds of feet above sea level except for surface-based turbulence, which is measured in feet above ground level. An abbreviation indicating the cause of the turbulence will be included. Turbulence due to mechanical turbulence, low-level wind shear, lee/mountain waves, a significant low-level jet or in clear air will be indicated as MECH, LLWS, LEE WV, LLJ or CAT, respectively. The following example indicates an area of moderate clear air turbulence (CAT) based at 18 000 ft ASL with a top at 26 000 ft ASL. 

Severe turbulence is depicted with a higher density of hatching. The following example shows an area of severe turbulence surrounded by a larger area of moderate turbulence: 

When separate areas of turbulence are occurring at different altitudes, the lower level is shown with hatching that slants upward to the right, while the higher level is depicted with hatching that slants downward to the right, as indicated below: 

Freezing level contours are indicated on a GFA by dashed lines. The height of the freezing level is indicated to the nearest multiple of 2 500 ft using the standard heights in hundreds of feet above sea level (e.g. SFC, 25, 50, 75, 100, meaning surface, 2 500, 5 000, 7 500, 10 000). When more than one freezing level is forecast, only the lowest level needs to be indicated, unless meteorological conditions are expected to be relevant to aviation safety (e.g. freezing precipitation aloft). An above freezing layer (AFL) is indicated by a closed area as shown below: 

Temporal changes in the freezing level, when significant, are indicated in the comments box of the chart, as in the following example: 

FZLVL 20 LWRG TO SFC AFT 03Z 

Low Level Jet (LLJ) included on the GFA icing, turbulence and freezing level chart when it is expected to have a peak core speed of 50 kt or more. It may be included at speeds between 35 and 45 kt when significant associated turbulence or shear is expected. An LLJ is depicted as follows, with the wind being in the direction of the arrow and the speed shown being the maximum expected wind speed: 

In general, LLJs are not included if they are above 6 000 ft ASL, except as required over higher terrain. The height of the jet is not indicated. In many cases, there may be associated turbulence, as shown in the example below: 

Once issued, a significant meteorological information (SIGMET) or AIRMET message automatically amends the current and relevant graphic area forecast (GFA). The remark (RMK) found in the national version of those messages indicates the GFA region(s) to which the SIGMET or AIRMET applies. 

A correction to a graphic area forecast (GFA) is issued for the following events: 

(a) The occurrence of any unforecast weather phenomena that do not require an AIRMET (i.e. they are below the AIRMET criteria threshold) or any other unforecast weather phenomena that, according to the forecaster, should be depicted in the GFA. 

Widespread area of BKN or OVC cloud with height of the base between 1000 and 5000 feet AGL.

Widespread area affected by the reduction of visibility between 3 and 6SM, including the weather phenomenon causing the reduction in visibility

Widespread mean surface wind speed between 20 KT and 30 KT, or peak wind gust of 30 KT or more

(b) Forecast weather phenomena in the GFA fail to occur, in which case the weather phenomena that are no longer occurring or no longer expected to occur are removed. 

(c) A significant error was made in a GFA chart. A significant error is one which, if uncorrected, would result in an erroneous interpretation of the GFA and create a potential hazard to aviation. 

When reissued, the correction code “CCA” is added to the first line of the title box to indicate the first correction, “CCB” for the second, “CCC” for the third, etc. 

Standard